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Multiple times each season, blobs like the ones illustrated here begin their Atlantic transit on the coast of Africa. Some, like now-active Tropical Storm Fiona, spin up early and thus, end up heading north, away from land. Others, like Invest 99 shown here in orange, track straight westward, gradually building up steam. It’s those storms that we pay attention to.

Once a storm starts to spin up, it typically then veers north, away from Grenada and the surrounding islands. Until they do though, they often head straight west, right at us. Like I said, we’ll be watching this one.


  1. From what I can divining, the GFS shows something ( not huge) coming close north of you by next Wednesday while the European Model does not. ECMWF, (which is usually more accurate) shows something much weaker, slower and more northerly.

  2. For about 7 years our family would finish our summer with a week or two in a beach house on Cape Hatteras. One year, about midway through the first week, there was a hurricane warning. We watched the next 3 days as the beach gradually disappeared from the storm surge. This was evident even when the storm was 200+ miles offshore.
    We were eating dinner one night when a knock on the door announced the arrival of a rep from the local constabulatory. They were announcing a mandatory evacuation and he had “next of kin” notice forms for anyone who did not want to leave.
    To paraphrase the old margarine ad “it is not nice to ignore Mother Nature”
    We packed up and were part of a 4 hour evacuation the next day.

    • We have been very fortunate when it comes to bad weather, avoiding anything serious. I’m come to respect it more and more though. Boats drag anchor here and end up on the rocks in even tiny squalls, let alone hurricanes. In fact, it happened earlier this week!

  3. Mike – You’ve got to get out of the Eastern Caribbean rut and try something different. Why not sail to Bonaire and then Curacao to spend a hurricane season in the Spanish Waters anchorage? Afterwards, in November you can sail either directly North to the DR, or depending on the wind, make it to the Virgin Islands. In fact, its still not too late, head West and reduce the risk of hurricanes by 100%.

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